Oddsmakers.
Tuesday, May 5th, 2020
What did I do while watching Rachel Maddow tonight with Sammy? I attempted to read Twitter out of the corner of my eye, and caught this:
A bar owner & protesters with weapons were arrested in #Odessa, #Texas today after the bar reopened against Governor Greg Abbott’s orders.
According to the Ector County Sheriff, the owner of #BigDaddyZanes was arrested for violating Gov. Abbott’s orders on reopening business.
And the Twitterverse was lighting up about this violation of constitutional freedoms. So I started typing.
jcb: Their actions go way way beyond private property. Their choices can and do infect others who have no choice. It’s way beyond selfish.
@DLagarry It’s also none of your business.
jcb: That’s the thing. It’s a global pandemic. It is literally all of our business. The more we work together, THE FEWER PEOPLE WILL DIE. If you’d like to fold your arms and watch people die, please check out of the human race before you go.
@Sittinduck21 We aren’t talking NY w/ high population density & public transit. In Oddessa are 84 people sick. If you assume there are just as many asymptomatic people about, that’s 168 people. Odessa has a population of 120,568. Each person you meet would have 0.14% of being infected.
jcb: That’s MORE than enough of a chance of infection where the SMART MOVE is to be a grownup & wear a mask and keep your distance. In Odessa. In Van Horn. In Presidio. In Marfa. And so on.
jcb: I’m not opposed to people doing dangerous, essential work, but when did we start campaigning for the god given right to be dumb? And to let our stupidity put others at risk?
@Sittinduck21 It’s extremely low odds. While I agree its wise to to take precautions to avoid further spread, I also believe in treating the situation with the level of seriousness it deserves. In my area Lowes has allowed the store to reach max cap w/ ppl buying supplies for the same reason.
jcb: I know it feels good to think you, or the Lowes manager knows what “level of seriousness it deserves”, but truth is: nope. Let’s let the folks who study this, who prepare entire playbooks for the possibility of this, let’s let them take the wheel.
jcb: Again, you’re thinking Vegas odds and not thinking epidemiologically. You don’t weigh the odds in a global pandemic. You think of your fellow human and do the right thing, even if your brain tells you “waaah, this is no fun.” BE AN ADULT.
jcb: Your mission is not to avoid getting infected, it’s to avoid being part of the force that spreads it. We don’t have huge huge testing, so we have to do it this way. It involves discipline on your part and maybe a leap of faith. The lives you save may be in Ohio or NM or…?
@Sittinduck21 Like I said, I’m not agreeing with what these guys are doing. I’m certainly not out there protesting restrictions. But I do believe rolling out there with armored vehicles and guns to break up a small grp of people when the odds if infection are low, is excessive.
@Sittinduck21 Odds are used in medicine all the time. You know all the side effects for medication that are terrible? They prescribed regardless because the odds of those effects are low. CDC defines exposure as w/in 6ft for 10 mins. I’m not saying I agree w/ them.
jcb: We’re in this world where we set ourselves up as our own experts. The folks who are getting together unsafely in low population areas are planting dangerous seeds we will not see for 2-3 weeks. They’ve really got to join Team Human Beings.
jcb: With all due respect, you’re kinda saying “I think I can talk about the same things they do” and then you use “odds” in a way that is NOT the way pandemic experts talk about it. It takes courage to say “I’m going to go with what the scientists say” —but you gotta.
@debjonesdj Aside from this one tiny bar & whether it should be open or not, we can’t stay shut down until a “cure” comes along. This pandemic is going to move through the population. People need to work. You probably have a source of income so its easy for you to tell everyone to stay home.
jcb: We’ve really developed a distrusting world—distrust of government, distrust of scientists—exactly when we need to let the people who study this for a lifetime do their jobs. And our job: believe them.
jcb: You have to stay home longer than your brain is telling you. It’d be great if we had a federal govt that made it possible for us to stay apart until the numbers say it’s ok. FEWER PEOPLE WOULD DIE. But we don’t just “reopen”—it will mean death, probably to people you know.
jcb: It’s not easy, and it’s not fun. And they’re not asking for you to shut down until “a cure.” They are asking you to be a grownup and take actions now that are NOT fun but will help people you maybe don’t even know. That’s being human, right?
At this point, my iPad typing finger started to cramp up, and besides, Maddow was through for the evening. And so, I think, am I.
